Modelling the chronology and dynamics of the spread of Asian rice from ca. 8000 BCE to 1000 CE

This paper presents a quantitative chronology for the spread of rice, based on global Rice Chronology Database that builds upon direct datings archaeological rice remains. Bayesian and spatio-temporal modelling suggest eastern China (lower Yangzi, middle southern Huai River, Shandong) northeastern South Asia as two key origins cultivation, dating to ca. 7430 6460 BCE, respectively. At least episodes are identified. The first, 4th 3rd millennia accounts appearance in Yellow River Wei regions, southeastern China, southwestern Southeast Asia. An examination population dynamics shows this episode might be associated with farmers whose subsistence was largely millets. During second spread, between 1st millennium BCE CE, Liao region, Central Asia, Africa.